Monthly Commentaries

Optimism From A Die-Hard Pessimist – December, 2004

The end of the year is usually a time to dissect what happened during the past year and provide forecasts for economic growth, inflation and interest rates. Instead of joining the chorus of economists, I wanted to focus on why I am optimistic. Optimism does not come easily to one who always expects the worst. But for the record, I am optimistic. During the late 1990s corporations and individuals spent billions on computers and computer programs. Most corporations invested heavily in technology in order to prepare for Y2K. Similarly, many families bought computers for the first time as Internet fever swept across all developed nations. What was lacking was an understanding of how to use that technology. Without understanding and education, those investments would yield nothing to either business or consumer. It has taken a number of years but I believe that we are just beginning to see the benefits of those investments. Most importantly, individuals are starting to see the power of technology to enact change. For an example of these benefits look no further than the Tsunami of 2004. Before any politician had convened a committee or issued a call to action, millions of individuals turned on their computers and started donating money to relief agencies. These little individual decisions happened without any great planning, without a promotional campaign and without any tax incentives. It was an expression of humanity in its most basic form, and it was not in our country alone.

It was compassion from many individuals from different nations, religions and ethnic backgrounds to people in need without regard to measure of economic or political return. People have started to figure it out. Technology is not just a faster calculator, snazzier word processor and cheaper long distance. It is also a way of acting and thinking. The power of technology is starting to live up to its promise. This worldwide tragedy has also reminded us of what we all have in common. This time people didn't pay lip service to the crisis, they did something about it.

Perhaps this recognition of community through a global tragedy will move us to a greater global peace. I am optimistic that things are going to improve. May 2005 be a happy, prosperous and fulfilling time for you and your entire family. Arthur Heinmaa, CFA